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They really got carried away, though in the context of that time there seemed any number of legitimate reasons for this. Gold investors were bidding up the precious metal like there was some kind of shortage, the price in dollars making a new record high (LBMA morning fix) on August 7. The way it was reported in the mainstream, this was more confirmation of Jay Powell’s flood of money printing making its way into every last corner of the financial world driving gold bugs nuts in the process (as intended).
Nah.
A few days before all that, the 10-year US Treasury yield had sunk back down near its crisis extremes. On August 4, the note finished trading to rate just 52 bps, less than the previous record low close set March 9.
Since early August, gold and the long end of the yield curve (as well as the shape of the short end) have merely continued their close coincidence of inverse behavior. It just isn’t a coincidence, of course, the mainstream view of gold is almost all backward and has been for a very, very long time (like everything else when it comes to money, finance, and economy).

Dating back more than two years now, gold prices have been pushed higher by deflationary expectations like those embedded within lower and lower risk-free rates represented in the longer UST’s. Gross financial distress of the global dollar shortage kind, totally the opposite of the inflationary flood we keep hearing about.

Gold is actually rising instead on concerns that central banks and governments around the world will fail in their collective efforts to support already deflationary economies…As always, money-less monetary policy comes down to ridiculous, easily disproved deception. Other than that, there’s nothing else in the official central banker toolkit. Realizing this, you might then understand exactly why gold and bonds are being bid concurrently in this way.

Now that gold prices are falling, you hear very little about them – in favor of the increasingly ridiculous BOND ROUT!!!! resurrected by this Inflation Hysteria #2 which suddenly can’t include rising gold prices.

Curious.

Even trading in Treasuries is about as un-inflationary as you might imagine. For all that’s supposedly going right right now, how is that longer-term rates haven’t really budged? Unbelievably tiny move. The 10-year note, for all this fuss and bother of late, vaccines and huge government stipends, it is all of 40 bps off its record close while basically the same as when Pfizer made its stunning vaccine public.

This barely qualifies as a market fluctuation, let alone a categorical shift in the Federal Reserve’s desperation direction.

Not for trying, mind you. While gold investors play off bond yields, speculative bond investors keep pounding Powell for Powell. There hasn’t been a single significant nugget of news the past few months that these shorts – betting on Jay getting something right for once – haven’t shorted more. And it hasn’t mattered what that news actually is.

Today, for example, there was two of these only hours apart (below)! First, earlier on in opening trading when “news” reached the pits of the federal government inching closer to a spending deal that everyone in the world already knows is going to get done at some point.

And then, more ridiculous still, another selloff attempt when the FOMC statement was announced and proclaimed not dovish enough. Or was it too dovish? In the middle somewhere? Good news was bad news? Or was this bad news which can be good news?

Doesn’t matter, because the shorts short on every bit of news regardless.

In reality, gold prices haven’t fallen all the much off their highs because Treasury yields haven’t come up much off their lows and seem to ably weather these storms of shorting whenever they inevitably show up. So much big stuff supposedly in the news, never much in the markets.

On the contrary, if there have been any serious developments they’re elsewhere – such as in bills. While attention gets drawn purposefully to make mountains out of those tiniest molehills out the longer end, where it really counts (where it reallycounted in March) there’s been increasing demand for the same collateral-center instruments. But you never hear a single thing about this:

Despite this ongoing deflationary caution, because of the ongoing collateral concerns behind it, even inflation expectations (TIPS) have been similarly subdued. Like the small backup in nominal yields, inflation breakevens and rates have been touted and thrown around like some bullet-proof proof positive that the Fed’s finally hit its magic money number.

The inflation genie’s out of the bottle!

Typically, these are done by comparing inflation expectations today with inflation expectations earlier in the year, hoping no one notices the missing context.

That context goes something like this: inflation breakevens right now, moved upward a little bit on nothing more than oil prices modestly hoping for vaccines to deliver an immediate end to the nightmare, still expectations are about where they were in the middle of last year or August 2015.

Yeah, not exactly a fiery infernos of out-of-control monetary excess; on the contrary, August 2015, for one thing, that had meant CNY and Wall Street flash crash, the same things which add up to dollar shortages and more getting stuck in the other direction.

And that’s what this broader survey of markets actually indicates. Not just stubbornly high gold, persistently low nominals, inflation expectations that haven’t surged despite all the awesomeness piled onto WTI, just about anything else including interest rate swaps aren’t anywhere close to the hysteria.

In fact, in the middle of the curve swap spreads have once more begun what sure looks like an ominous descent of the non-inflation kind. And interest rate swaps here is right where inflation – if it was real – would be showing up. Trillions in “fixed” income and balance sheet factors globally which, if the Fed had done anything close to what’s being said, you better believe these would absolutely require, nay demand, piling up in swaps (decompressing spreads).

The most you can say of any of these things is that right now it isn’t as bad as March/April. That’s not inflationary; it’s the lowest of potential standards possible. A small relative change that’s, par for the mainstream course, being blown way out of proportion.

Because those proportions aren’t ever included.

More to the point, there’s enough elsewhere to explain why this is; why the best that can be said is thankfully there’s no third GFC right now at this moment. However, that doesn’t mean these same deflationary and potentially textbook deflationary problems have gone away, they’ve just gone away from the media and mainstream commentary over-eager to put all this behind us.

Got to get back to loving the technocracy again. After the Bernanke debacle and the decade-plus spent trying to clean that up, and only sweeping it under the rug, the Federal Reserve can’t possibly fail this big, can it?

Haruhiko Kuroda would like a word.

If it shows up at the Federal Reserve, you can pretty much bet everything you own that it was tried out at the Bank of Japan first. And if it was the brilliant brainchild of someone at the BoJ, then you’re guaranteed it failed spectacularly. Which means, obviously, the “ideal” technocrats at the Fed intentionally copied something they knew had already proved ineffective and useless.
QE is hardly the only example of this.

More than halfway through the year 2016 when nothing was going to plan, Haruhiko Kuroda’s gang decided they needed a little extra push on the economy. Even though Reflation #3 was stirring underneath, and though Japanese authorities always projected confidence about conditions no matter how badly it was doing, officials worried after having gotten nothing out of NIRP earlier in the year something more would be required.
To try and goose inflation expectations some more, the central bankers hit upon the idea of “overshooting.” On September 21, 2016, the BoJ simultaneously announced Yield Curve Control (which we’ve covered) as well as making the following “commitment” beside YCC:

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The Bank will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner. [emphasis added]

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How corrupt that they still referred to bank reserves, the byproduct of every form of QE, including Japan’s QQE, as the “monetary base.” Technically true insofar as mainstream definitions go; however, since said definitions are half a century outdated this amounts to useless trivia intended to mislead the public.
The purpose, in lieu of any actual contribution to the effective monetary base in practice by the global banking system, is to make the public and businesses in it believe in “money printing.” Not see it for themselves, or hear about it directly from someone in the real economy experiencing it, because there isn’t any. Believe it as a matter of “trust.”
If anyone in Japan thinks the central bank is credibly promising to be irresponsible with its printing press, then it is assumed by Economists and central bankers (same thing) that those Japanese people will act today consistent with expectations for inflation tomorrow. Becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, inflation – therefore increased growth, the ultimate object – is achieved.
Year after year, decade after decade, the Japanese people politely but resolutely refuse.
So, the central bank merely changes the phrasing of these promises while doing absolutely nothing different monetarily.
And you’ll probably recognize this Japanese wordsmithing from 2016 in that less than two years later the Federal Reserve would go on to adopt the exact same position. Only, in May 2018 the Fed called its not-brand new commitment “symmetrical” rather than “overshooting.”
Reworded yet again earlier this year in August, today Jay Powell’s crew terms it average inflation targeting.
The point, and the method, is exactly the same in all three; promise to be irresponsible when no central bank has any clue in practice just how. What’s left is this ridiculous and absurd puppet show that never works. Yet, it is copied time and again while being uncritically celebrated in all the financial media as a powerful engine of economic efficacy despite never once achieving anything tangible.

As I keep having to point out, these are not serious people.
With Japan specifically, the commitment made in September 2016 was for continued expansion in the outdated “monetary base” until the CPI less fresh food reached 2%, moved above 2%, and then remained higher than that target “in a stable manner.” As you can probably guess already, Japan’s CPI less fresh food never once reached 2% let alone climbed above that level, forget staying above.
In fact, this specific inflation index rarely got as far as 1% (only three months out of 50 since introduced did the rate get halfway):
Remember, this “overshoot” stuff was committed to more than four years ago; which leads us to the next part of the official statement:

Through this commitment, the Bank aims to enhance the credibility of achieving the price stability target of 2 percent among the public.

Credibility enhancement: we couldn’t make inflation happen for more than a decade so now we commit to hitting a target we’ve never hit and letting inflation go above that target we couldn’t achieve because we can never get this inflation we keep promising no matter how many bank reserves we create in the process.
These are not serious people. But, and here’s the thing, these are very serious times growing more serious by the month, by the week, maybe even by the day.
You’ve undoubtedly already noticed, too, how Japan is once again experiencing outright deflation. The core rate referenced in the ridiculous “overshoot” policy dropped to -0.7% year-over-year during October 2020 according to figures released today. That makes it five out of the last seven months in deflation, and, if we include June’s zero, six out of the last seven non-positive.
More than that, -0.7% is the worst core inflation figure in Japan in 115 months, just about ten years. You have to go all the way back to early 2011 to find a similarly significant rate of core consumer price declines.
And it’s not as if the Bank of Japan has been sitting idle since the March global recession fueled by GFC2 smashed the world economy. On the contrary, oh no no, the Japanese central bank has leaned hard into its QQE (now well into its eight year) at a vastly accelerated rate; the “printing” has been in overdrive ever since February (below).
That’s eight months of spiraling higher and higher “base money” while inflation only sinks lower and lower. It’s not even a good puppet show:
What’s truly concerning is that here in Japan we find yet another indication of global deflationary forces still picking up in the wake of March; not COVID, either, since Japan like Europe and many other parts of the world had been near or even in recession dating back to the middle of last year. It’s an awful long time to be stuck with widespread contraction running concurrent to QE’s and “money printing.”
More and more there’s outright deflation because: the global economy hasn’t rebounded as it had been expected to by many, including central bankers, leaving it exposed to further consequences of this dead “V”; and, this QE business is no serious business at all, therefore no help to forestall or alleviate the negative forces clearly impeding the worldwide machinery of economic exchange.

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Maybe the worst part of all is how this is happening in Japan. What I mean by that is that Japan doesn’thave a COVID problem whatsoever and never really did, thereby removing that as an excuse. The country was not once shut down and isn’t experiencing either a first wave or a second wave in the same respect as so many other places.
If Japan’s economy is sinking further, certainly seems to be, this acknowledges the second wave of deflationary dollar disease running rampant throughout the global economy. For all those still somehow thinking the response to it was ever going to be hugely inflationary, the Bank of Japan is about to exceed three-quarters of a quadrillion yen in assets with absolutely no sign of inflation, growth, or anything other than financial media credibility.
QE doesn’t work. It never has. These programs are not money printing because all they lead to is bank reserves while bank reserves are not a useful form of money. They are instead, in a word, accounting. The logic is as simple as it is unassailable.